General elections 2024 in India was filled with shockers and surprises. Though BJP won, but there was a mourning silence as if they lost election, in Congress camp there was celebration as if they have won election though they have got only 99 seats. It is a time of introspection for BJP. My take here on BJP’s underperformance is given with analysis.
BJP as a party was ideally on right path, however away from reality. BJP could not understand the pulse of neither its supports nor others. Since ages Indian people are known for adjusting to the social evolution and the rulers. It was a farfetched idea to include every Indian in the saga like economical growth, Industrial revolution, India ahead, 5th largest economy, etc. This ideology probably may work with a combination of individual benefit. In normal understanding it appears based on the general elections that people only look for the personal level benefit; country, religion, growth, etc., are secondary for them. No caste or religion is loyal to any party, people go with personal benefit. Even Hindus cannot be loyal to BJP every time. The examples can be seen sine ages in India. People in India adjusted and lived happily without even bothering about the nation and religion. Even in the Mughals’ era, the upper castes Hindus were the loyal assistants and brain behind Muslim rulers. Many Hindu kings taken help of Mughals to defeat another Hindu King. The upper caste Hindus’ association was not only restricted to political or administrative matters, it was even in matrimonial. Basically what I would like to say is people look for individual benefit than the larger picture of the country. “The people are loyal to benefits not the ideology”. For upper caste, middle class people who are loyal voters of BJP were left with dilemma. Nothing constructive has been done for this sect of people.
The major chunk of the voters are loyal to Congress and other parties as they have personal benefit as well as privileges from the party’s agenda. Since a decade BJP was in power never thought about loyal BJP voters, in fact strengthened the opposition voters with benefits in a miss conception to attract certain percentage of votes from the opposition chunk of voters. It was a farfetched idea & BJP’s misadventure since Shri Atal Bihari Vajapayee’s time. Though officially cannot say, however no one can deny that the election was based on religion, caste and the privileges people enjoying. Though BJP was in power, it could not control the caste influence on election as the privileges are based on caste system in India. It is a highly ambitious expectation of BJP to get vote from the loyal voters of the Congress, be it Muslim votes, backward classes or Christians. In this process BJP forgot to lure its core voters, BJP was also indulged directly or indirectly in appeasement of non BJP voters. This act of BJP has strengthened the non BJP voters further internally to resist BJP even stronger at a larger level. This has left the majority BJP loyal voters confused and feeling of “none care for their aspirations”.
When it comes to agenda of the party, Congress party’s agenda was much focused and individually targeted. Be it caste based reservations, Rs.8500 per person, OBC status for Muslim community, Shadi Bhagya, Haj pilgrimage funding, etc. BJP has no agenda as such, which can lure loyal voters of BJP. Even after 10 years of ruling, common man who is not in any category like OBC, minority, or privileged is suffering. His tax burden went high, cost of living went high, cost of education is high, for jobs he has to compete with no privilege, the government schemes majority of them are designed for the backward classes or minority. BJP has done lot many good works, but at an individual level common man is still suffering. Yes, common man understands the larger picture of the vision, but no one else is trying to understand. All the rest are enjoying their privileges, which makes around 40 to 50 percent of the population. The common man is waiting for his sufferings to end, century old aspirations realized, expecting a political party which fights for them. Even after decades, BJP is still in dilemma whether to lean towards upper caste people or lean towards others. General election verdict is the clear mandate of the same dilemma reflected in the voting by common man.
The biggest concern of upper caste and middle class people was the caste based reservation system, which was never addressed by BJP in the apprehensions of losing SC/ST votes. However, BJP has lost their votes anyway. As per times of India, school enrollment data of 2021 shows (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/school-enrolment-data-indicates-45-obcs-19-dalits-in-india/articleshow/84877162.cms)
OBC – 45% SC-15% ST-11% Muslim-14% Christian-2.3% Upper caste consists of– 12 to 15%
Upper caste is not only Brahmins; there are other caste people who are below poverty mark. They don’t have any representation in political or social life. These people had a hope on BJP and they were the loyal voters, they found in a situation where they might have started feeling Congress or BJP are two faces of same coin and cannot expect anything from any political party.
It’s a lesson for the party, time to take a stand now. BJP cannot afford to lose its vote bank’s hope on the party. The Congress and other parties grow stronger if BJP plays moderate in terms of vote bank. It’s high time BJP to take a stand either upper caste side or become irrelevant.
Vijay G
Bengaluru
